Siberian Baseball

Monday, April 03, 2006

October? Don't mind if we do.

Here's the danger of doing a post season prediction post in April - if 20 percent of these hit, I'll be really happy. If I happen to pick my way to a World Series winner, I'll kick myself for not locking that in with some action in Vegas.

In the AL, I have New York, Chicago and Oakland. In the NL, I have Atlanta, St. Louis and Los Angeles. That leaves the wild cards.

In terms of viable wild card options, there's Boston, Toronto, Cleveland and Los Angeles (of Anaheim). Second-tier is Minnesota and Seattle or Texas (herein lies another danger - I'm watching Seattle right now make their way back on the Angels and thinking, "Hmm... maybe?" Then, I realize if there were any pitchers on the Mariners, Jamie Moyer wouldn't be getting the start today.)

OK, let's knock that down to Boston, Cleveland and Toronto. I think in the AL that New York/Boston and Chicago/Cleveland are neck and neck on paper. If you flip them, I'm not surprised at all. However, the wild card is going to the AL Central runner up this year.

With the additions to Toronto and Baltimore, some of those wins out east are going to dry up. Simply put, whoever finishes second in the east, finishes out of the playoffs. Welcome to October, Indians.

In the National League, the contenders are the Mets, Cubs and Astros. I kow I have the Astros as fourth in the NL Central, but that division is so jacked up that I have no problems lumping them in as a Wild Card contender.

Not that it matters much, because I think the team that makes it will come out of the East. The Mets have the strongest case there, but assuming that New York keeps pace, the Braves won't be the ones to drop the ball, either.

So that leaves this line up for October:

New York
Chicago
Oakland
*Cleveland

Atlanta
St. Louis
Los Angeles
*New York

Honestly, there's no real analysis that's going to follow here, so here's the true thought process. In the AL, this is the most stable Yankees team in a few years. They didn't blow arpart the team and added Johnny Damon. Instead of their usual All-Star team routine where the team flops around until July and then comes together down the stretch, the core from last year has been left intact. That's going to be tough to beat.

The NL is a process of elimination. Read the following sentence out loud, adding in those NL teams in the blank. "Wow, it sshould be a really tight World Series with the _________ in there for the National League. This might be the NL's year!"

Yeah, St. Louis.

They've come too close too often and have the pitching this year. Barring injuries again this year, I see Cards over Yankees and can't remember whose prediction that was at ESPN, but I'll be sure to check now.

Of course, this is after Albert Pujols kicked off the season with two home runs, so that may be playing a part in the prognostication. Damn, procrastination doesn't ever pay, does it?

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