Siberian Baseball

Tuesday, February 21, 2006

Toronto Blue Jays (80-82, .494, 3rd in AL East)

Where to start with the Blue Jays, the stars of the 2006 off-season?

After picking up BJ Ryan from Baltimore, Troy Glaus and Bengie Molina from the Angels and Lyle Overbay from Milwaukee, the Blue Jays seem primed to enter the fray in the AL East. The funny thing is after enering the roster the other night, it didn't seem quite as impressive.

Following the wires on ESPN.com, one saw a lot of movement in Toronto the past three months and the Ryan pick-up made a big splash at the time but seriously, look at their depth chart and it doesn't seem so intimidating.

The most glaring problem is the hole up the middle. The keystone combo for the Jays is Russ Adams (139 games last year/123 hits/.256 BA/ 63 RBI) and Aaron Hill (105 games last year/99 hits/ .274 BA/ 40 RBI - all as a rookie). While Hill played well defensively, having these two anchoring your infield seems like a recipe for disaster.

In the outfield, Vernon Wells is the only name player in center. Reed Johnson, a career .277 hitter who is listed on the team web site as a right fielder will be starting in left. Alex Rios will be in right and while defensive stats are few and far between (especially on the mlb.com site - Chicks dig the long ball!) I worry about the speed out in right when Rios stole 14 bases and was caught 9 times. Cheer up, Jays fans - maybe he just makes awful decisions!

Speaking of which, Ryan, who steps into the closer's role in Toronto, will be paid $47 million over the next 5 years. Speaking as someone who saw their share of O's games in Baltimore when I lived out east, Ryan never did it for me. Jore Julio had more raw stuff and Ryan seemed overwhelmed at times.

I realize he's an All-Star pitcher, but I think this was a bad move by a team looking to make any move and think they overpaid in a dry year for true closers. This warrants its own posting as I've had the 'What makes a good closer' arguement hundreds of times with Frank (including the White Sox's decision to start Bobby Jenks in the post-season last year) and think that numbers don't do a true closer justice.

Still, with a solid pitching rotation (Halliday, Burnett, Lilly, Chacin and Towers) and that Burnett addition, the pitchers should be able to carry the team this season. Will they be over .500? Yes. Will they push the rest of the divison? Yes. Will they make the playoffs this year? Nope.

All told the Jays are on the right path, but unless they become one of those 'better than the sum of its parts' teams, I don't see it happening this year.

Blue Jays
C: B Molina; G Zaun
1B: L Overbay; S Hillenbrand
2B: A Hill; J McDonald
SS: R Adams; J McDonald
3B: T Glaus; S Hillenbrand, A Hill
LF: R Johnson; F Catalanotto
CF: V Wells; R Johnson; A Rios
RF: A Rios; R Johnson
DH: S Hillenbrand; E Hinske

SP: Halladay; Burnett; Lilly; Chacin; Towers
CP: BJ Ryan

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